Machine learning algorithms are increasingly being employed in high stakes decision making processes.

The complexity of Structured Query Language (SQL) and the specialized nature of geospatial functions in tools like PostGIS present significant barriers to non-experts seeking to analyze spatial data. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promise for translating natural language into SQL (Text-to-SQL), single-agent approaches often struggle with the semantic and syntactic complexities of spatial queries. To address this, we propose a multi-agent framework designed to accurately translate natural language questions into spatial SQL queries. The framework integrates several innovative components, including a knowledge base with programmatic schema profiling and semantic enrichment, embeddings for context retrieval, and a collaborative multi-agent pipeline as its core. This pipeline comprises specialized agents for entity extraction, metadata retrieval, query logic formulation, SQL generation, and a review agent that performs programmatic and semantic validation of the generated SQL to ensure correctness (self-verification). We evaluate our system using both the non-spatial KaggleDBQA benchmark and a new, comprehensive SpatialQueryQA benchmark that includes diverse geometry types, predicates, and three levels of query complexity. On KaggleDBQA, the system achieved an overall accuracy of 81.2% (221 out of 272 questions) after the review agent's review and corrections. For spatial queries, the system achieved an overall accuracy of 87.7% (79 out of 90 questions), compared with 76.7% without the review agent. Beyond accuracy, results also show that in some instances the system generates queries that are more semantically aligned with user intent than those in the benchmarks. This work makes spatial analysis more accessible, and provides a robust, generalizable foundation for spatial Text-to-SQL systems, advancing the development of autonomous GIS.

In discrete undirected graphical models, the conditional independence of node labels Y is specified by the graph structure. We study the case where there is another input random vector X (e.g.

In discrete undirected graphical models, the conditional independence of node labels Y is specified by the graph structure. We study the case where there is another input random vector X (e.g.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for governments and healthcare systems worldwide, highlighting the critical importance of understanding the factors that contribute to virus transmission. This study aimed to identify the most influential age groups in COVID-19 infection rates at the US county level using the Modified Morris Method and deep learning for time series. Our approach involved training the state-of-the-art time-series model Temporal Fusion Transformer on different age groups as a static feature and the population vaccination status as the dynamic feature. We analyzed the impact of those age groups on COVID-19 infection rates by perturbing individual input features and ranked them based on their Morris sensitivity scores, which quantify their contribution to COVID-19 transmission rates. The findings are verified using ground truth data from the CDC and US Census, which provide the true infection rates for each age group. The results suggest that young adults were the most influential age group in COVID-19 transmission at the county level between March 1, 2020, and November 27, 2021. Using these results can inform public health policies and interventions, such as targeted vaccination strategies, to better control the spread of the virus. Our approach demonstrates the utility of feature sensitivity analysis in identifying critical factors contributing to COVID-19 transmission and can be applied in other public health domains.

Interpretable machine learning plays a key role in healthcare because it is challenging in understanding feature importance in deep learning model predictions. We propose a novel framework that uses deep learning to study feature sensitivity for model predictions. This work combines sensitivity analysis with heterogeneous time-series deep learning model prediction, which corresponds to the interpretations of spatio-temporal features. We forecast county-level COVID-19 infection using the Temporal Fusion Transformer. We then use the sensitivity analysis extending Morris Method to see how sensitive the outputs are with respect to perturbation to our static and dynamic input features. The significance of the work is grounded in a real-world COVID-19 infection prediction with highly non-stationary, finely granular, and heterogeneous data. 1) Our model can capture the detailed daily changes of temporal and spatial model behaviors and achieves high prediction performance compared to a PyTorch baseline. 2) By analyzing the Morris sensitivity indices and attention patterns, we decipher the meaning of feature importance with observational population and dynamic model changes. 3) We have collected 2.5 years of socioeconomic and health features over 3142 US counties, such as observed cases and deaths, and a number of static (age distribution, health disparity, and industry) and dynamic features (vaccination, disease spread, transmissible cases, and social distancing). Using the proposed framework, we conduct extensive experiments and show our model can learn complex interactions and perform predictions for daily infection at the county level. Being able to model the disease infection with a hybrid prediction and description accuracy measurement with Morris index at the county level is a central idea that sheds light on individual feature interpretation via sensitivity analysis.

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general wrapper that can be combined with any black box method that produces point predictions of the unseen label or estimated quantiles of its distribution. While previous conformal inference methods rely on the assumption that the data points are exchangeable, our adaptive approach provably achieves the desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals irrespective of the true data generating process. We accomplish this by modelling the distribution shift as a learning problem in a single parameter whose optimal value is varying over time and must be continuously re-estimated. We test our method, adaptive conformal inference, on two real world datasets and find that its predictions are robust to visible and significant distribution shifts.

C3.ai, a leading enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) software provider for accelerating digital transformation, welcomes data scientists, developers, researchers, and creative thinkers from around the world to participate in the C3.ai COVID-19 Grand Challenge. The competition invites participants to leverage data science techniques in new and innovative ways to generate insights that previously were neither apparent nor achievable. "The C3.ai COVID-19 Grand Challenge represents an opportunity to inform decision makers at the local, state, and federal levels and transform the way the world confronts this pandemic," said Thomas M. Siebel, CEO of C3.ai. "As with the C3.ai COVID-19 Data Lake and the C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute, this initiative will tap our community's collective IQ to make important strides toward necessary, innovative solutions that will help solve a global crisis."

Data cleaning is naturally framed as probabilistic inference in a generative model, combining a prior distribution over ground-truth databases with a likelihood that models the noisy channel by which the data are filtered, corrupted, and joined to yield incomplete, dirty, and denormalized datasets. Based on this view, we present PClean, a unified generative modeling architecture for cleaning and normalizing dirty data in diverse domains. Given an unclean dataset and a probabilistic program encoding relevant domain knowledge, PClean learns a structured representation of the data as a relational database of interrelated objects, and uses this latent structure to impute missing values, identify duplicates, detect errors, and propose corrections in the original data table. PClean makes three modeling and inference contributions: (i) a domain-general non-parametric generative model of relational data, for inferring latent objects and their network of latent connections; (ii) a domain-specific probabilistic programming language, for encoding domain knowledge specific to each dataset being cleaned; and (iii) a domain-general inference engine that adapts to each PClean program by constructing data-driven proposals used in sequential Monte Carlo and particle Gibbs. We show empirically that short (< 50-line) PClean programs deliver higher accuracy than state-of-the-art data cleaning systems based on machine learning and weighted logic; that PClean's inference algorithm is faster than generic particle Gibbs inference for probabilistic programs; and that PClean scales to large real-world datasets with millions of rows.